Abstract: I study the impact of the recent rise in remote work on households' consumption, wealth and housing decisions, examining both short-run and long-run effects. Using detailed UK property-level housing data and a heterogeneous agent model with endogenous housing tenure and city geography, I show that remote work shifts housing demand by increasing the taste for space and reducing commuting costs. It affects where people live in the city and their housing wealth accumulation. The effects vary by access to remote work, income, and wealth. The rise in work-from-home can be compared to a city-wide gentrification shock as wealthy telecommuters opt for larger suburban homes, displacing marginal owners who turn to renting. In the long-run, work-from-home leads to the rise of a tele-premium and consumption inequality increases.
Abstract: This paper examines the impact of two-tier labor markets on business cycle volatility through durable consumption. To analyze two-tier labor markets and risk heterogeneity, I focus on labor contracts. I observe that, during recessions, workers on fixed-term contracts reduce their durable consumption significantly more than their permanent counterparts. I use an incomplete market model of durable and non-durable consumption with a dual labor market, where durable consumption is subject to a non-convex adjustment cost. In this framework, I highlight the heterogeneous effects of changes in upside versus downside income risk on the magnitude and persistence of durable consumption fluctuations. I also show that harmonizing contract types offers a promising tool for stabilizing the business cycle.
Savings Choices in Debt Decisions with Paul Hubert and Frédérique Savignac
Fiscal Policy with Heterogeneity in Durable Consumption with Albert Hidalgo and Ralph Luetticke
Abstract: The recent HANK literature reassesses fiscal and monetary policy with heterogeneity in MPCs. This is typically done in a model with only non-durable consumption, and the evidence on MPCs is interpreted through this lens. However, most of the heterogeneity in MPCs stems from differences in the choice of durable consumption. This paper builds a HANK model with durable and non-durable consumption that is consistent with the novel evidence of heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to consume durables and, importantly, heterogeneity in inter-temporal substitution in durables. We use the model to study the effects and transmission of fiscal policy, investigating if durables increase the state dependence of fiscal policy (i.e. is fiscal policy less effective in recessions because households delay purchases of durables?). Additionally, we look at whether the importance of durables increases the need for fiscal and monetary policy coordination.
Winners and Losers from Monetary Policy: Evidence from the UK Rental Market with Thomas Lazarowicz (preliminary)
Abstract: This paper estimates the heterogenous effects of monetary policy across a novel dimension, housing tenure. Using microdata from one of the UK’s largest property rental and sales websites, we show that a contractionary shock to the policy rate leads to 1) an increase in rental prices and simultaneously 2) a fall in house prices. The granular microdata also allows us to demonstrate that a contractionary shock leads to a decrease in the listing rate of rental properties, suggesting that this heterogenous response across rents and house prices is not solely driven by household tenure decisions, but also by a rental supply channel.